Saturday, January 16, 2010

More Aspen Cutting = More Grouse . . . Is Michigan Cutting More or Less Aspen Due to Bad Economy?

With unemployment about 15 percent, Michigan is feeling the effects of the bad economy more than other states.

This leads a Michigan bird hunter to ponder what kind of impact the economy is having on the state's ruffed grouse.

Besides the mysterious 10-year cycle that causes the numbers of ruffed grouse across its range to peak, crash and repeat, the ruffed grouses' fortune more than anything rides on the availability of prime habitat, which consists of young aspen forests.

The best way to get young aspen forests is to cut old aspen forests. It takes only about four years for an aspen clear cut to regenerate and attract and help build populations of ruffed grouse and woodcock.

You can't open a newspaper, turn on a news broadcast in Michigan or have a conversation and avoid hearing a report about budget cuts taking place at the state level, city level, township level, school level, or personal wallet level.

So far, I haven't heard one reporter discuss the economic impact on my favorite game bird the ruffed grouse.

The economy, of course, could have a huge impact on the future of the birds. Could the state be cutting aspen like there's no tomorrow to increase revenue from forest products? That would help ruffed grouse populations explode like, well, a ruffed grouse in front of a pointing dog's nose.

On the other hand, could demand for forest products be so suppressed by the slow economy that the price being paid for aspen trees isn't enough to cover the cost to fuel up the logging equipment? I don't have to say this scenario would not bode well for Michigan's ruffed grouse or grouse hunters' success rate/enjoyment from exciting grouse encounters in the field.

Turns out, neither my boom nor my bust theory is correct, according to a forestry supervisor with the Michigan Department of Natural Resources.

"Our level of aspen harvesting has not been modified significantly due to the conditions of the economy," said Larry Pedersen, a forest planning and operations supervisor in the forest resource management section, in an e-mail response to my e-mailed questions. "We are fortunate in Michigan to have a relatively diverse wood products industry and we have weathered the overall economic downturn without much of a downturn in our timber harvests, including those for aspen."

The math seems to check out. I found average timber or "stumpage" prices online.

The maximum sold price of mixed aspen in Michigan averaged $130 from Oct. 1, 2008 to Sept. 30, 2009.

The average maximum sold price of mixed aspen in Michigan from Jan. 1, 2006 to Dec. 31, 2006? That year, it was $127.

Looks as if I can't expect the bad economy to dramatically increase ruffed grouse hunting opportunities in the next few years.

On a positive note, I did see quite a bit of good looking aspen stands on the east and west sides of the state this past fall, and it looks like the opportunities won't get worse either.